In this year’s Lok Sabha election, the BJP lost 12 out of 54 seats (22 per cent) that it had won in 2019 where the voter turnout was more than 5 per cent lower compared to 2019.

Haryana

In the Sirsa Lok Sabha constituency in Haryana, the Congress won the seat in 2024 with a winning margin of 2,68,497 votes and comprising 19.82 per cent in vote share. In 2019, the BJP had won the seat by a margin of 3,09,918 votes and getting 22.63 per cent in vote share. Similarly in 2014, the INLD won the seat by a margin of 1,15,736 votes which was 9.05 per cent of the vote share. The Congress had won in 2009 by a margin of 35,499 votes, which was 3.62 per cent of the vote share.

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In Haryana’s Hisar, the Congress won the seat by a margin of 63,381 votes which turned out to be 5.4 per cent of the vote share cast in the seat this year. In 2019, BJP had won the seat by a massive 3,14,068 votes which was 26.62 per cent of the vote share. Similarly in 2014, the INLD became the winner by 31,847 votes making it 2.76 per cent of the vote share in the seat that year. In 2009, the HJCBL won it by 6,983 votes which was 0.84 per cent of the vote share.

The Sonipat had a similar tale to narrate with the Congress having won the seat by 21,816 votes forming 1.94 per cent of the vote share. The BJP had won the seat both in 2019 and 2014. In 2019, the party won by a margin of 1,64,864 votes which was 14.6 per cent of the total vote cast that year in the seat. In 2014, the figure stood at 77,414 votes in terms of victory margin and 7.85 per cent in vote share. Before that, the Congress won the seat in 2009 with a margin of 1,61,284 votes and 22.64 per cent in vote share.

Rajasthan

In Sikar, the CPIM won the seat this year with a winning margin of 72,896 votes which calculated into 5.6 per cent of the vote share. The BJP had emerged victorious in the previous two editions of Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2014 with a winning margin of 2,97,156 and 2,39,196 votes and 22.39 per cent and 22.44 per cent vote share respectively. The figure stood at 1,49,426 winning margin and 20.59 vote share in 2009.

In the Bharatpur Lok Sabha seat, the Congress came out the winner in 2024 with a winning margin of 51,983 votes and 4.59 per cent in vote share. The story was a happier one for the BJP both in 2019 and 2014. In 2019, the party won the seat by a margin of 3,18,399 votes comprising 27.76 per cent in vote share. Before that in 2014, the winning margin for the party was 2,45,468 votes and the vote share was 25.56 per cent. In 2009, the Congress won it by a margin of 81,454 votes making it 14.52 per cent of the vote share.

For the Karauli-Dholpur Lok Sabha constituency in Rajasthan, the Congress pipped its nearest rival by 98,945 votes comprising 10.01 per cent of the vote share this year. In 2019 and 2014, the BJP had won the seat, In 2019, the BJP won it by 97,682 votes making it 9.79 per cent of the vote share. Previously in 2014, the party won it by 27,216 votes and the vote share happened to be 3.22 per cent. In 2009, the Congress won it by 29,723 votes and the vote share it received was 6.1 per cent.

Repeating a similar story in the Tonk-Sawai Madhopur seat, the Congress won the seat this year by 64,949 votes. The vote share in its kitty was 5.3 per cent. For the BJP, the winner’s luck kissed both in 2019 and 2014. In 2019, it won the seat by 1,11,291 votes and 9.02 per cent of the vote share. Likewise in 2014, the statistics stood at 1,35,506 votes and 12.99 per cent in vote share. The Congress narrowly won the seat in 2009 by a mere 317 votes just making it to be 0.04 per cent of the vote share.

In the Ganganagar Lok Sabha seat, the Congress clinched victory in 2024 by a margin of 88,153 votes which was 6.24 per cent of the vote share. The BJP became the winner in 2019 by a margin of 4,06,978 votes making it 28.03 per cent of the vote share. In 2014, the BJP had the last laugh when it won the seat by 2,91,741 votes making it 23.08 per cent of the vote share. The Congress got it right in 2009 when it won the seat by a margin of 1,40,668 votes which was 15.46 per cent of the vote share.

The script was same for the Jhunjhunu when the Congress won it this year by a margin of 18,235 votes comprising 1.63 per cent of the vote share. In 2019, the BJP bagged it by a margin of 3,02,547 votes which was 25.23 per cent of the vote share. Similarly in 2014, the winning margin for the BJP was 2,33,835 votes making it 23.23 per cent of the vote share. The Congress won the seat in 2009 by 65,332 votes making it 10.85 per cent of the vote share.

In the Dausa Lok Sabha seat, the Congress won the seat this year by a margin of 2,37,340 votes and 22.12 vote share. The seat was with the BJP in 2019 which it had won it by a margin of 78,444 votes and the vote share of the same was 7.38 per cent. In 2014, the winning margin was 45,404 votes and the vote share of it was 4.88 per cent. In 2009, the Congress bagged the seat by 1,37,759 votes and the vote share of that was 16.37 per cent.

Uttar Pradesh

In Muzaffarnagar, the Samajwadi Party won the seat this year by 24,672 votes which was a vote share of 2.29 per cent. The BJP had won the seat in 2019 by 6,526 votes and the vote share of that victory was 0.56 per cent. In 2014, the BJP won it by 4,01,150 votes and that made it the vote share of 36.22 per cent. In 2009, it was the Bahujan Samaj Party that bagged the seat by 20,598 votes and the vote share of that winning margin was 2.76 per cent.

The Baghpat seat this time went to Rashtriya Lok Dal who won it by a margin of 1,59,459. The vote share of the margin was 17.08 per cent. However, both in 2019 and 2014, the BJP grabbed the seat. The statistics of those victory stood at 23,502 votes (2.25 per cent) and 2,09,866 (20.9 per cent) respectively. The RLD won it in 2009 by a margin of 63,027 votes and the vote share of that margin was 10.27 per cent.

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Low voter turnout did hurt BJP; party lost 22% of 2019 seats where turnout fell by 5%