With the situation in Bangladesh still evolving post-Sheikh Hasina’s exit, India has intensified its diplomatic outreach to neighbouring countries as regional security challenges continue to undergo a massive reshaping exercise. New Delhi seeks to strengthen its bilateral ties with neighbours and counterbalance growing Chinese influence and the role of Western powers in its neighbourhood.
In a series of high-level recent visits, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has engaged with key partners in the Maldives and Sri Lanka, while Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri who toured Bhutan last month is currently in Nepal, where Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli assumed power only a few weeks ago.
Known for his pro-China and anti-India stances, Oli, however, has just extended an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit his country. With Oli’s return to power, India is intently watching whether he revives Nepal’s plans to sign onto China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), posing a strategic challenge to New Delhi’s security and strategic interests.
The past three years have witnessed significant transformations in South Asia’s political equations particularly in India’s neighbouring countries which bore the brunt of a series of dramatic events, including regime changes, power vacuums, political upheavals and mass protests that have reshaped the region’s dynamics.
The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021, followed by the ousting of Imran Khan as Pakistan’s prime minister in April 2022. The period also witnessed widespread protests in Sri Lanka that forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of power in July 2022. And now, civil unrest has exiled Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, Hasina, who is currently in India after hurriedly fleeing the country recently in a military aircraft. These developments warranted India reassessing and strengthening its outreach to neighbouring countries.
Amid reports about the role of Western countries in toppling the elected government, political commentator Priyam Gandhi Mody said that the United States has a long history of effecting regime change by funding opposition camps, anarchy against the elected regime that does not support US interests, and even bringing countries on the brink of economic collapse or war—all under the garb of upholding ‘democracy’.
This is something similar to what Hasina reportedly said while claiming that the US pressured her to allow America to have control over St Martin Island in the Bay of Bengal. Reports quoted Hasina as saying that the US plotted her ouster for refusing to accede to its territorial demand.
More often than not, these interests are more self-serving than idealistic; in Bangladesh’s case, the US allegedly seeks to establish and hold control at such a strategic location to check China in the Indo-Pacific as well as retain pressure on India to deter its fast-paced growth, Mody said, adding that the excuse of democracy does not seem to apply to countries like Pakistan and Ukraine, which the US continues to support and fund, bailing them out of bankruptcy over and over.
Jaishankar’s Maldives visit sends message to Dhaka
The Indian foreign minister’s visit to the Maldives has delivered a significant message to Dhaka, amid the ongoing turmoil in the country. During a media interaction, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu said that his government’s foreign policy remains unchanged, prioritising the nation’s interests above all.
His statement came in response to queries about the ‘India Out’ campaign the ruling PNC-PPM coalition started last year. President Muizzu reaffirmed his commitment to maintaining the existing foreign policy framework.
The statement was made immediately after Jaishankar departed from the Maldives, concluding a two-day visit during which he launched several projects. Bangladesh, which is now grappling with political instability and economic woes, may soon need similar help from India, as was the case with Sri Lanka in 2022.
Oli invites PM Modi to Nepal after Foreign Secretary Misri’s visit
Prime Minister Oli is now facing the significant task of ensuring political stability after assuming office. With Oli’s return to power, India’s focus shifted to evaluate whether Oli, who is considered pro-China, would proceed to sign the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) agreement with Beijing during his tenure.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is visiting the Himalayan nation where he met with Oli. Reports suggest that in his new term, Oli aims to strengthen ties with India and his invitation to Indian Prime Minister Modi is a step towards this end.
Rajan Bhattarai, head of the foreign policy department of Oli’s party, mentioned in an interview that the CPN-UML does not believe that Nepal can advance or serve the interests of its people by adopting an anti-India stance.
The Indian diplomat also met with former Prime Minister and Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba at his Budhanilkantha residence on Kathmandu’s outskirts. Their meeting covered various topics of mutual interest, focusing on strengthening Nepal-India relations and fostering mutually beneficial cooperation.
Indian Ocean region outreach
Jaishankar visited Sri Lanka in June this year where he met with Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe and commissioned the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre built with a $6 million grant from India during his first bilateral visit overseas after being re-appointed in the Union Cabinet.
It may be noted that Wickremesinghe was among seven world leaders who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Modi on June 9 as he inaugurated his third consecutive term in New Delhi.
Jaishankar, who met Wickremesinghe at his residence, conveyed PM Modi’s warm greetings and discussed the way forward for the bilateral cooperation, especially in power, energy, connectivity, port infrastructure, aviation, digital, health, food security, education and tourism sectors.
Jaishankar said that neighbours such as Sri Lanka are essential to India and there is tremendous goodwill for them in India. He said the Indian government was firm on its ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy and the main purpose of his visit was to underline India’s continued commitment to Sri Lanka as its closest maritime neighbour. They discussed Indian investments, development projects, connectivity projects and other mutually beneficial cooperation in multiple spheres.
Modi’s Bhutan visit amid China’s growing influence
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Bhutan in March this year highlighted the country’s significance in India’s foreign policy. The outcomes of the visit were largely driven by China’s growing influence in the region. China’s economic rise has enabled it to test India’s diplomatic heft in the subcontinent, with its economy almost five times larger than India’s.
Beijing’s strategic economic cooperation with South Asia has increased its political and diplomatic clout, making it difficult for smaller neighbours like Bhutan to resist its pressures.
Bhutan, located in the sensitive eastern Himalayas, is a crucial partner for India, with no formal diplomatic relations with China. However, Beijing has been pushing for a favourable border settlement and bilateral relationship with Thimphu. India has recognised the need to adapt to China’s growing influence and is now focusing on deeper economic cooperation, sovereign equality, and mutually beneficial security cooperation with its neighbours.
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Shifting sands in South Asia: Amid Bangladesh crisis, India reaching out to its neighbours
