The nomination deadline for Amethi and Rae Bareli is three days away. So far, Congress has not announced the names of the candidates it will be fielding from these constituencies– both historically important for the party.
The political arena is abuzz with speculation over whether siblings Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will contest from these traditional Congress strongholds. Demands, hopes, and rumours abound.
We take a look at why the Congress may be determined to maintain the suspense until the eleventh hour. We also explain the challenges that Priyanka and Rahul are set to face.
Rumours say Rahul, Priyanka to contest from Amethi, Rae Bareli
Amethi and Rae Bareli, long-considered bastions of the Nehru-Gandhi family, go to polls on May 20.
So far, there has been no confirmation from the Congress whether Rahul will contest from Amethi– the constituency which elected him to the Lok Sabha thrice, in 2004, 2009, and 2014.
The situation with Rae Bareli is similar. Sonia Gandhi, a senior party leader and long-time MP from Rae Bareli, has already been elected to the Rajya Sabha. This leaves a big question open: who will contest from this seat?
Speculations are that Priyanka might make her debut from Rae Bareli. Like Amethi, the party has chosen to maintain the mystery around the candidate from this seat, too.
The suspense over the candidature has not only intrigued political observers but also caused a stir among local Congress supporters and party cadres, who are eager to see if the Gandhi scion will reclaim his former seat.
From the party cadre in Uttar Pradesh (the state that houses both these constituencies) to several Congress leaders, many have called for the Gandhi siblings to contest from these seats. It is, many say, crucial for morale and for maintaining the image of the party.
But why are these seats so important for the party?
The significance of Amethi, Rae Bareli for Congress
Amethi and Rae Bareli hold significant electoral value for the Congress party, primarily because of their historical association with the Nehru-Gandhi family. These constituencies are viewed as traditional strongholds, where the party has won in almost every Lok Sabha election.
Since its inception, Amethi has been electing Congress candidates, several of them from the Nehru-Gandhi family. Sanjay Gandhi won from the seat in 1980, Rajiv Gandhi was elected MP from here in 1981, 1984, 1989, and 1991. After his passing, his wife Sonia won the 1998 election from this seat. Rahul took over from her, and secured the Amethi seat in three successive general elections beginning in 2004. However, in a notable political upset, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Smriti Irani defeated him in 2019, breaking the Gandhi family’s longstanding dominance in the constituency.
The only other times Congress candidates faced defeat from this seat was in 1977 and 1998.
Rae Bareli, similarly, has been a Congress bastion, held by various members of the Gandhi family including Feroze Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, and currently Sonia Gandhi. Despite a few electoral setbacks in 1977, 1996, and 1999 when the party lost to strong opponents, the constituency largely remains under Congress control. In fact, in 2019, it was the only seat the party won in the state of Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections.
These seats represent the historical legacy and enduring influence of the Gandhi family within the Congress party.
Given how critical these seats are, why is it that Congress is dilly-dallying with the names of the candidates?
The mystery around Amethi, Rae Bareli: A strategic move?
Some are attributing the delay to indecision within the party, while others portray this as a sign of vulnerability and lack of confidence within the Congress ranks
However, this delay in candidate announcement could be part of a larger strategy to sustain the “Rahul vs. Modi” narrative that is currently dominating the national discourse. By not declaring Rahul Gandhi’s candidacy for Amethi, the Congress seems to be strategically avoiding shifting the narrative to a Rahul vs. Smriti Irani contest, which could dilute their primary electoral pitch against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to a source cited by The Times of India.
For the uninitiated, Smriti Irani is the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) candidate for Amethi. She became a Member of Parliament (MP) from the constituency in 2019, after defeating Rahul by a margin of 55,120 votes.
As for maintaining the suspense over Priyanka’s electoral debut, it could be that the party wants to capitalise on the surprise value of such a move.
If Rahul and Priyanka are not running in these two constituencies, then it would make sense that the party is delaying putting the actual candidates’ names out, perhaps in a bid to save face and hold off intense attacks on this as much as possible.
There is a lot of uncertainty. However, two things are clear. If Rahul and Priyanka do not contest these elections, it would be a big blow to the Congress party. They will be seen all but relinquishing their stronghold seats. If the two do contest elections, that would bring up different challenges.
The challenges for the Gandhi siblings, Congress
Consider the scenario of Rahul contesting the elections from Amethi, first. He has already contested from Wayanad in Kerala. This is a Congress stronghold, where the party is largely expected to win. What happens if he wins in Amethi, too?
Then, he will have to give up one of the two constituencies. Wayanad is of great strategic importance to Congress. Giving it up right before in upcoming Kerala assembly elections would be a massive blunder. It would also feed right into the narrative BJP, and especially Irani, have pushed: That Rahul would “desert” Wayanad like he did Amethi.
If he loses from Amethi, that would be a big loss for Congress. The Party would lose its stronghold, and provide further impetus to the BJP attacks about the party’s diminishing influence and resolve.
What about Priyanka and her potential electoral debut in Rae Bareli? First, there are practical concerns about the limited time remaining for her to campaign. There is a chance that this may not turn out to be that big of an issue, given that she has canvassed extensively here to garner support for her mother Sonia in the past.
Her potential candidacy could galvanise the party’s base but would also hinder her ability to campaign nationally, a vital role given her prowess as a key Congress orator and campaigner. That would become especially true if she wins the election and is tied down to constituency duties.
If she loses, it would make for a horrendous debut and could cast a dark shadow over her political career.
Should the Gandhi siblings opt out, the optics of quitting without even putting up a fight would be very damaging. The grand old party would then be left with no ideological forts in the Hindi heartland. BJP would also likely capitalise on this to tout the success of the “Congress-mukt Bharat” campaign.
With inputs from agencies
Link to article –
Why Congress is undecided about Rahul, Priyanka’s nomination from Amethi, Rae Bareli
