Arguing that India’s economic growth is more about generating livelihoods than just jobs, the Economic Survey said the nation’s economy needs to generate an average of nearly 78.5 lakh jobs annually until 2030 in the non-farm sector to cater to the rising workforce.
The Economic Survey for 2023-24, tabled in Parliament on Monday provided a broad estimate of the number of jobs that the economy has to generate.
It further said that everyone in the working age would not seek jobs as some of them would be self-employed and some of them would be employers too. Governments at all levels and the private sector will have to strive together for it, it said.
“The current workforce in 2022-2356 has been estimated using the WPR (usual status, all ages) for 2022-23 from PLFS and the corresponding population estimates by MoHFW. The rise in workforce has been estimated assuming constant WPR for men (54.4 per cent in 2023) and rising WPR for women (from 27.0 per cent in 2023 to 40.0 per cent in 2036, increasing by 1 percentage point every year),” it said.
“Further, to account for the structural transformation, it is assumed that the share of agriculture in the workforce gradually declines from 45.8 per cent in 2023 to one-fourth in 2047,60 and the corresponding workforce thereby leaving agriculture is added to the rise in workforce.”
It said that the share of agriculture in the workforce will gradually decline from 45.8 per cent in 2023 to 25 per cent in 2047.
“This is a reasonable assumption to make given the sticky predominance of agriculture in employment, and the potential of high-value agriculture and allied activities to generate remunerative employment, especially for women,” it said.
Consequently, the Indian economy needs to generate an average of nearly 78.5 lakh jobs annually until 2030 in the non-farm sector to cater to the rising workforce, the Economic Survey estimated.
How India can meet this job requirement
The demand of 78.5 lakh jobs in the non-farm sector per year, can be met by supplementing the existing schemes of PLI (60 lakh employment generation over 5 years), MITRA Textile scheme (20 lakh employment generation) and MUDRA, etc, the Survey suggested.
The rising employment of flexi workers through staffing companies can be a channel for ensuring social security for informal workers, it stated.
It pointed out that there remains long-existing challenges of formalising a burgeoning workforce, facilitating job creation in sectors which can absorb workers shifting from agriculture, and ensuring social security benefits for those in regular wage/salaried employment.
It further suggested that state governments can grease the wheels of hiring by easing the compliance burden and reforming laws on land.
Concurrently, the employment landscape is fast changing worldwide, and India, aspiring to be a developed nation by 2047, must partake in the massive reshaping of jobs that AI has and is likely to further spin off, it suggested.
How automation would impact the job market
The impact of automation on workers being complex and uncertain, the direction of technological change remains susceptible to forces of political economy, the Economic Survey observed.
India thus needs to invest in research and steer the AI bandwagon towards shared prosperity, it suggested, adding that something as basic and age-old as unpaid care work needs attention too.
The development of an affordable, reliable, and quality creche and elderly care infrastructure is the Achilles heel for female participation in paid work, which should be determined by comparative advantage and choice rather than dictated by gender, it stated.
In their fascination for AI and fear of erosion of competitiveness, businesses have to bear in mind their responsibility for employment generation and the consequent impact on social stability, it said.
Has the new Labour Code made any difference?
The Economic Survey observed that the new Labour Codes marginally improved some of regulatory limits (like daily work hours).
However, it stated that the Codes are yet to be fully-operationalised and many states are found to be reintroducing the older restrictions under the new Laws.
It suggested that labour laws need to be reviewed to re-evaluate incentives for employers, with a focus on achieving better outcomes for economic growth and prosperity in the manufacturing sector.
Implementing more flexible labour laws could unleash substantial economic potential, promote gender inclusivity, and attract industrial investment, it stated. PTI KKS DRR
(With inputs from agencies)
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How many jobs India needs to create in a year? Economic Survey says…
