Will Arvind Kejriwal’s interim bail benefit the AAP in the Lok Sabha elections? Or is it too late?

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal will be heaving a sigh of relief today (10 May) as the Supreme Court granted him interim bail in the alleged excise policy scam. He will now be able to campaign in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

A bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta said Kejriwal, arrested in the money laundering case linked to the alleged
excise policy scam
, will have to surrender and go back to jail on 2 June, a day after the last phase of the polls — 1 June.

Now, it is left to be seen if the Delhi CM’s interim bail will boost the party’s campaign ahead of the polls — Delhi will exercise its right to vote on 25 May. Or will it be a case of too little, too late?

What the court said

On 10 May, Supreme Court Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta granted
interim bail
to Kejriwal until 1 June, adding that the AAP boss, who is currently lodged at Tihar jail, will surrender to prison officials by 2 June.

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) had earlier vehemently opposed granting any relief to Kejriwal for electioneering, saying there was no precedent available. However, the apex court said that “21 days (the period of bail) will not make any difference”.

It further pointed out that the ED had registered its case two years ago and that Kejriwal was only arrested in March 2024. “For one-and-a-half years he was there… he could have been arrested before or after (the election) also. Whatever it is, 21 days here or there should not make any difference,” the court said.

This is, notably, in line with what it had said during its Tuesday hearing too. The bench had then observed that Kejriwal is the chief minister of Delhi and elections come once in five years and there is no harm in campaigning. “We are only considering whether this case requires an exception or if the person involved is in that exceptional circumstance, given the fact that elections are round the corner,” the bench had said.

And in granting interim bail today, the apex court also laid down
conditions
that the Delhi chief minister would have to follow, which are similar to the ones laid down for AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh.

How the AAP has reacted

Reports state that the AAP boss will walk out as early as this evening and will be able to canvass for the votes. The AAP welcomed the court’s decision with AAP workers celebrating outside the party’s office in the Capital, chanting slogans such as “Jail ke taale toot gaye, Kejriwal ji choot gaye”.

AAP’s Sanjay Singh said in a post on X: “Truth can be troubled but not defeated. The decision of the Hon’ble Supreme Court is welcome. The dictatorship will end. Satyamev Jayate.”

Delhi minister Atishi also said, “The Supreme Court decision today does not just give relief to Arvind Kejriwal. Democracy has won, the Constitution has won. Whenever democracy and the Constitution have been threatened, Supreme Court has come forward to protect it. This decision will safeguard democracy.”

Echoing similar sentiments, Delhi minister Saurabh Bharadwaj said: “In a PMLA case, in which the Centre‘s machinery wanted to keep a chief minister in jail in a case where people have been kept in jail for months without proof for months, Arvind Kejriwal getting interim bail in 40 days is nothing short of a miracle, This is a sign from God that India needs a change.”

AAP leader Jasmine Shah went a step further and said: “The Lok Sabha election actually begins today. Even in areas where there is no AAP candidate, the people of the country will vote for the INDIA bloc candidate.”

Boost amid the polls

Needless to say, the temporary relief to Kejriwal will provide a boost to the AAP, especially when it comes to electioneering and canvassing. It will also serve as a morale booster to the workers, who have been tirelessly working.

Let’s break it down, step by step. From the point of canvassing, Kejriwal’s bail will be a big shot in the arm. Polling has yet to take place in 18 of the 22 Lok Sabha constituencies that the AAP is contesting: four in Delhi, 13 in Punjab, and one in Haryana. As one leader was quoted as telling the Indian Express, “It is a big leg-up for us. We have campaigned well so far and the issue of him being arrested before the elections has been raised at every platform — right from the court of the people to the court of law. It is no secret that he is the best speaker we have. He has been watching whatever is unfolding closely and will hit the ground running.”

It is expected that in the next few days itself, Kejriwal will campaign for the four seats in Delhi where AAP is contesting.

While he has been in jail, other AAP members, such as Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann and his wife,
Sunita Kejriwal
, have taken on the responsibility for canvassing. In fact, on 27 April, Sunita Kejriwal had held her maiden roadshow in the East Delhi constituency. Prior to that, she had also addressed rallies of the INDIA bloc in Delhi and Jharkhand.

Some media reports said that Kejriwal’s bail will also enable him to strategise with the other INDIA bloc leaders for the ongoing elections. An AAP leader told Indian Express, “The biggest blow to the party because of the arrests for Manish Sisodia and Kejriwal was that the organisational hierarchy was not the strongest. With Kejriwal walking out of jail, these issues will get ironed out.”

Lost opportunity

While the AAP and INDIA bloc seems buoyed by the interim relief provided to Kejriwal, would it actually make a difference to the elections?

Pundits aren’t able to discern if it’s a matter of too little, too late. That’s because of the time lost. Delhi will go to the polls in the sixth phase on 25 May, while Punjab goes to the polls in the last phase on 1 June. This means that Kejriwal has approximately 10 days to campaign for his party candidates. Compare this to BJP. The Narendra Modi-led party has had enough time to campaign and establish a rapport with the voter.

Only the results on 4 June will be able to tell us if Kejriwal’s bail has had any positive impact. Until then, it’s a game of wait and watch.