As Jammu and Kashmir returns to assembly elections after a decade, the Congress-National Conference (NC) coalition is set to edge out the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), indicating a significant shift in the Union Territory’s political landscape. This potential victory marks a resurgence of the alliance after losing power in 2014. But how will history and the evolving political landscape affect the long-term prospects of this coalition?
The political landscape: Current election dynamics
Trends as of 2:30 pm show the Congress-NC coalition leading in 50 of the 90 constituencies, giving it an advantage over the BJP’s 29 seats. In the Union Territory’s 90-seat assembly, a party or coalition needs 46 seats to secure a majority. This points to a possible revival of Congress-NC governance after 10 years of absence, following the alliance’s defeat in the 2014 elections.
Election promises and manifesto divides
While the NC manifesto focusses on the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A, the Congress has refrained from strongly addressing this issue, reflecting key ideological differences within the alliance. This divergence may play a crucial role in shaping the future governance of Jammu and Kashmir.
Interestingly, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP, a longtime rival of the NC in Jammu and Kashmir, is also part of the Congress-led INDIA bloc at the national level. However, in this election, the PDP has faced a near-total collapse, securing only two seats—a situation reminiscent of Mayawati’s BSP in Uttar Pradesh, which has seen a dramatic decline and is now fading into political irrelevance.
Roots of the Congress-NC alliance
On the cusp of victory that is yet to be officially announced, NC chief Farooq Abdullah expressed his gratitude, saying, “After 10 years the people have given their mandate to us. We pray to Allah that we meet their expectations. It will not be ‘police raj’ here but ’logon ka raj’.” He emphasised his commitment to freeing innocent individuals in jail, ensuring media freedom and fostering trust between Hindus and Muslims. Abdullah also voiced optimism about the INDIA alliance partners joining the fight to restore statehood, while noting that Omar Abdullah, who is also is son and former chief minister of the erstwhile state, is likely to become the next chief minister.
This victory marks a significant moment in the long-standing relationship between the NC and Congress, which dates back to pre-Independence when Sheikh Abdullah’s party aligned with Jawaharlal Nehru’s secular vision. This partnership has endured through key moments of Kashmir’s accession to India and post-independence governance, although it has not been without tension.
Sheikh Abdullah’s legacy and early alliance
The NC, founded by Sheikh Abdullah, father of Farooq Abdullah, in 1932, was initially a voice for Kashmir’s Muslim majority but later broadened to a secular, inclusive platform. Abdullah’s ties with Nehru were pivotal in aligning the NC with Congress, especially during Kashmir’s accession to India in 1947. Despite this alliance, the dismissal and imprisonment of Sheikh Abdullah in 1953 over concerns of autonomy or independence marked a significant rift in the relationship.
1975 Indira-Sheikh Accord: A turning point
After over two decades of strained relations, the 1975 accord between Sheikh Abdullah and Indira Gandhi marked the reconciliation of NC and Congress. This agreement, which reinstalled Abdullah as chief minister, stabilised their relations, setting the stage for future alliances.
1987 elections and the surge of militancy
The NC-Congress alliance in the 1987 elections, which was marred by allegations of rigging, is considered a key catalyst for the insurgency that broke out in 1989. The perceived injustice of the election results significantly fuelled anti-India sentiment in Kashmir, contributing to the rise of militancy. This period left a lasting impact on the political environment in Jammu and Kashmir.
Rise of new players: PDP and BJP
From the early 2000s onwards, the Congress-NC alliance faced new political challenges. The rise of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which later aligned with the BJP, created new rivalries and altered the balance of power in the region. By 2014, Congress and NC had lost their dominant position, giving way to the BJP-PDP coalition.
Coalition government: A necessity or a liability?
The historical alliance between Congress and NC has often been seen as a marriage of convenience rather than a seamless ideological partnership. While secularism and regional autonomy bind the two, differences over Articles 370 and 35A, and handling of terrorism, remain unresolved. The coalition has often reflected the political pragmatism of the region—uniting when necessary to counteract BJP influence, while grappling with internal contradictions.
With the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape has been significantly altered. Both Congress and NC face the challenge of navigating a Union Territory where the political and legal frameworks have shifted. This election could potentially restore some stability, but the question remains whether their shared governance will address the region’s deeply rooted issues or continue as an uneasy alliance shaped by historical rifts and pragmatic decisions.
Link to article –
Hope vs history: Why NC-Congress coalition in J&K may not be a bed of roses
